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DTN Early Word Livestock Comments 06/09 08:19
Livestock Futures May Struggle to Find Support
Cattle futures tried to push higher, but further cases of the New World
screwworm (NWS) seemed to cause sufficient uncertainty to trigger selling
pressure. Hogs followed a similar pattern with strength during the day,
eventually giving way to weakness on new lows.
Robin Schmahl
DTN Contributing Analyst
Cattle: Steady Futures: Mixed Live Equiv: $288.48 -$1.14*
Hogs: Higher Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $105.07 -$2.72**
*Based on the formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer
revenue. (The Live Cattle Equiv. The index has been updated to depict recent
changes in live cattle weights and grading percentages.)
** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue.
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Once one case of the New World screwworm (NWS) was confirmed, more cases
have been discovered. Cases are expected to increase now that it has moved into
the U.S. It is uncertain what the fundamental impact will be on the market. It
does not impact the safety of beef, and it may not impact cattle supplies. If
anything, some cattle movement will be limited, and potentially, some impact on
herd rebuilding. The result is that ranchers will be more vigilant, increasing
the time spent observing their cattle. However, the uncertainty may trigger
further liquidation in the futures market as traders may reduce their long
positions. Boxed beef prices were lower on Monday, with choice down $0.50 and
select down $4.60. Early expectations are for cash to be no better than steady
this week.
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